This seminar will be held in Room 11.09, Worsley Building, at 12.30 on Thursday 27th February 2020.
Seminars are free and open for all to attend. No prior booking is required.
Each presentation will be followed by a short Q&A session.
Presentation: Simulation modelling to inform plant health policy
By: Dr Vincent Keenan, Mathematical Modeller, Plant Health Centre Scotland, & Post Doctoral Research Associate, University of Strathclyde
Abstract: The number of non-native plant pests and diseases are entering into the UK has been growing exponentially and is directly related to international trade. There is no sign of trade slowing down, so what can we do about our invasive problem? The general strategy is to prevent arrival and prepare contingency plans if the pest or pathogen arrives and establishes.
Analysis of empirical data and simulation modelling using techniques such as maximum entropy modelling are used to determine the impact of any potential invader. This research is then translated into policy decisions to mitigate any ill effects from the invasive.
I’ll take you through a brief tour of my job and what it entails, who I interact with, and the challenges faced in this line of work. I’ll also take you through some cases I’m working on, or have been peripherally involved with that include: potential Emerald ash borer invasion of the UK, Potato cyst nematode infestations in Scotland, how to plant a forest (very briefly), some work we have been doing in India (potential future work).